Young voters swung back toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms, early data shows

Summary

Early data from the 2026 midterm elections shows voters under 30 swinging sharply back toward Democrats after their 2024 gains for Trump. According to Tufts University's CIRCLE, which analyzed preliminary NORC data, an estimated 66% of voters ages 18 to 29 backed Democratic House candidates, compared with 31% for Republicans, a 35-point gap. In the 2024 national House exit poll, young voters favored Democrats 56% to 42%, a 14-point margin. Democratic support among men under 30 rose from 51% in 2024 to 59% in 2026, and among young women it climbed from 61% to 70%. In statewide races, preliminary SSRS polling showed 76% of voters under 30 backing Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico in Texas and 73% backing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, while 70% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia. In Iowa, where young voters backed Trump in 2024, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson lost significant ground with the group, according to the AP Voter Poll. Vox described the shift as one of the most consequential subplots of the 2026 elections.

Timeline

1. Vox

   5 Nov 2026, 17:35 UTCSource ↗

   Vox reports that young voters swung back toward Democrats after the midterms, with early data showing 66% of adults under 30 voting for a Democrat for the House compared with 31% for a Republican, a gap of 35 percentage points.

2. Axios

   5 Nov 2026, 18:19 UTCSource ↗

   Axios reports, citing Tufts University's CIRCLE analysis of preliminary NORC data, that 66% of voters ages 18 to 29 backed Democratic House candidates versus 31% for Republicans, a 35-point gap compared with 14 points in the 2024 exit poll, and that Democratic support among men under 30 rose from 51% to 59%.