Polling largely called the 2026 midterm races, with misses in a few Senate contests

Summary

Political polling experts hailed a “great night” for the industry after surveys accurately foresaw much of the Democratic blue wave that swept across the US in the midterm elections. The accuracy of US polling had come under sharp scrutiny after Trump outperformed polls in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In only a handful of US Senate races, including Texas and New Hampshire, key polls failed to gauge the scale of the Democratic victory over Republicans on Tuesday.

Timeline

1. The Guardian

   5 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTCSource ↗

   The Guardian reports that political polling experts hailed a “great night” for the industry after polls accurately called much of the Democratic wave in the US midterms, but key polls failed to gauge the scale of the Democratic win in a handful of Senate races, including Texas and New Hampshire.