Exit polls show neither Netanyahu's nor Eisenkot's bloc reaching a majority as Palestinian-led parties gain

Summary

Exit polls released after polls closed on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, suggest that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot will reach the 61-seat majority needed in the 120-seat Knesset, with estimates differing by outlet. Middle East Eye reported that Kan and Channel 13 each projected Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 53, while Axios reported 51 to 52 seats for Netanyahu's bloc and 49 to 51 for Eisenkot's, with Netanyahu's coalition closing the gap as the night wore on. Channel 13 projected Likud as the largest single party with 25 seats, ahead of Eisenkot's Yashar with 23, while Axios reported 27 and 21. The Joint List and Ra'am were projected to win between 17 and 19 seats, which would be a record number of Arab MPs, and Middle East Eye attributed the gains to a surge in voting by Palestinian citizens of Israel. The Guardian reported that Netanyahu had lost his governing majority and that Eisenkot appeared to rule out a broad coalition with Palestinian parties in a premature declaration of victory. Axios said a stalemate is the most likely outcome and that a minority government backed by the two Arab parties looks unlikely. These are exit polls, and the outcome remains unsettled until official results are released.

Timeline

1. Middle East Eye

   27 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTCSource ↗

   Middle East Eye reports that an exit poll by Israel's Channel 11 projects the opposition Change bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot to win more seats than Netanyahu's bloc, with strong gains for Palestinian-led parties.

2. Middle East Eye

   27 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTCSource ↗

   Middle East Eye reports that Kan projects Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 53, far short of a 61-seat majority, with the Joint List and Ra'am projected to win 18 seats.

3. Middle East Eye

   27 Oct 2026, 20:12 UTCSource ↗

   Middle East Eye's live blog reports that Channel 13 projects Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 53, with the Joint List and Raam projected to win 17 seats.

4. Middle East Eye

   27 Oct 2026, 20:25 UTCSource ↗

   Middle East Eye's live blog reports a Channel 13 exit poll projecting Likud to win 25 seats, the most of any party, with Eisenkot's Yashar at 23 and the opposition bloc holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu's bloc.

5. Axios

   28 Oct 2026, 01:37 UTCSource ↗

   Axios reports that Israeli exit polls put Netanyahu's bloc at 51 to 52 seats and Eisenkot's bloc at 49 to 51, with Likud projected at 27 seats and Yashar at 21, both blocs short of the 61-seat majority.

6. The Guardian

   28 Oct 2026, 19:58 UTCSource ↗

   The Guardian reports that votes for Palestinian parties surged in a tight contest with the highest turnout in decades, and that Netanyahu has lost his governing majority.