Iran War and Renewables Set to Cut Global Fossil Fuel Emissions in 2026 for First Time Since Covid

Summary

Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by 0.4 percent in 2026, which would be the first annual drop since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy, trade and transport, researchers said. They credit the decline to the expansion of renewable energy and an oil price shock linked to the Iran war. A new study found carbon pollution dropped only slightly this year and said the oil shock, rather than efforts to fight climate change, is the larger reason. Researchers warned that the decline may be short-lived.

Timeline

1. The New York Times

   10 Nov 2026, 01:01 UTCSource ↗

   The New York Times reports that the Iran war unexpectedly drove down carbon emissions this year, the first drop in planet-warming pollution since the pandemic in 2020, and that researchers cautioned the decline could be short-lived.

2. The Straits Times

   10 Nov 2026, 02:55 UTCSource ↗

   The Straits Times reports research finding that fossil fuel emissions are falling due to the Iran war and renewables, which would be the first annual drop since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic paralysed trade and transport.

3. The Japan Times

   10 Nov 2026, 04:26 UTCSource ↗

   The Japan Times reports that fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall this year due to the Iran war and renewables, which would be the first annual drop since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy, trade and transport.

4. France 24

   10 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTCSource ↗

   France 24 reports that researchers said global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by 0.4 percent in 2026, the first drop since the Covid pandemic, driven by renewable energy expansion and the oil price shock linked to the Iran war, and warned the decline may be short-lived.

5. Phys.org

   10 Nov 2026, 09:23 UTCSource ↗

   Phys.org reports that global carbon pollution dropped slightly this year, and that scientists in a new study attribute this more to oil shocks from the Iran war than to anything the world has done to fight climate change.

6. PBS NewsHour

   10 Nov 2026, 19:05 UTCSource ↗

   PBS NewsHour reports that emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels decreased slightly this year due to the Iran war, according to scientists.